Wallup Poll 3/6/09

Wallup Press Release: Poll results for Friday, 3/6/09

"If the election were held today, who would you support?"

TPP - 27%
FP - 16%
RKP - 15%
MDP -8%
MP - 8%
Don't Know/No Opinion - 26%

Analysis -
Our poll yesterday demonstrates some old and new trends.

The TPP continues to lead in the poll and its popularity continues to be growing. Our internal numbers show strong name recognition for the TPP and its leader, Blake Chaffins. The party shows strong support amongst voters labeling themselves liberal and moderate. The growth of TPP support may spell bad news for the other parties. The TPP is approaching the infamous 35% support mark. This mark, when reached in past elections, seems to foreshadow electoral victory.

The RKP appears to be suffering from a public relations slip-up earlier in the week. While not losing much support, its growing appeal appears to have stagnated, likely as a result of negative coverage during the week.

The clear beneficiary of the comments is the FP. Our internal numbers show a dramatic swing by women voters to this party. While the FP has not cast itself as a "women's" party, the week's exchange has translated into sympathy from women voters.

The MDP and MP remain behind. Our numbers show little knowledge of these parties or their stances. At this point in the campaign name recognition is critical and these parties have yet to establish it. Neither party has really challenged the RKP for center-right voters. This means that while the RKP had a bad week, little political competition leaves the door open for them to reassert themselves with more conservative voters. Unless the MDP and MP develop a clear electoral stategy they face the real possibility of being squeezed out of the election.

Upcoming events this week could prove pivotal for parties to consuladate their support and appeal to new voter groups.